The national narrative about rents is one of relentless increases. But the reality in 2025 is far more nuanced. While some smaller metros are experiencing explosive rent growth exceeding 30%, a growing number of Sun Belt markets that boomed during the pandemic are now seeing rents decline. The rental market is fracturing along geographic, economic, and supply-driven lines.
The 20 Fastest-Rising Rental Markets
Using Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) data, which tracks asking rents for the typical rental unit, here are the metros with the largest year-over-year rent increases:
| Rank | Metro | YoY Rent Change | Current ZORI | Home Price Change (YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abilene, TX | +33.6% | $1,770 | +3.6% |
| 2 | Monroe, LA | +32.0% | $1,100 | -2.9% |
| 3 | Lima, OH | +13.6% | $1,174 | +6.9% |
| 4 | Jefferson City, MO | +10.7% | $1,014 | +4.7% |
| 5 | Bismarck, ND | +10.6% | $1,326 | +5.6% |
| 6 | Lake Charles, LA | +10.1% | $1,155 | +4.3% |
| 7 | Mankato, MN | +9.8% | $1,296 | +5.0% |
| 8 | Paducah, KY | +9.2% | $1,217 | +1.0% |
| 9 | Traverse City, MI | +9.2% | $1,974 | +1.6% |
| 10 | Joplin, MO | +9.0% | $1,233 | +1.1% |
| 11 | Fond du Lac, WI | +8.5% | $1,073 | +5.3% |
| 12 | Binghamton, NY | +8.3% | $1,266 | +3.8% |
| 13 | Sheboygan, WI | +8.1% | $969 | +6.7% |
| 14 | Cedar Rapids, IA | +7.9% | $1,115 | +3.3% |
| 15 | Grand Forks, ND | +7.8% | $1,173 | +6.4% |
| 16 | Johnstown, PA | +7.6% | $811 | -4.1% |
| 17 | Beckley, WV | +7.6% | $1,054 | -5.3% |
| 18 | Dothan, AL | +7.4% | $1,191 | +2.1% |
| 19 | Peoria, IL | +7.4% | $1,145 | +8.6% |
| 20 | Evansville, IN | +7.1% | $1,050 | +3.6% |
The Small-Metro Pattern
A striking pattern emerges: nearly all of the fastest-rising rental markets are small to mid-sized metros ā places like Abilene (pop. 168,000), Monroe (pop. 142,000), and Lima (pop. 100,000). These markets share key characteristics:
- Limited rental stock: Small metros have fewer rental units, so even modest demand shifts produce outsized price movements
- Institutional investor entry: As large metros become saturated, institutional landlords are moving into smaller markets
- Low construction activity: Many of these metros have minimal new apartment construction, creating supply bottlenecks
- Wage stagnation: Incomes in these areas haven't kept pace ā Monroe's home prices actually fell 2.9% even as rents jumped 32%
ā ļø The Disconnect: Rising Rents, Flat Prices
In several of the top 20 markets, rents are surging while home prices are flat or declining ā Monroe (-2.9%), Johnstown (-4.1%), Beckley (-5.3%). This suggests increased rental demand from households who can't afford to buy, pushing renters into competition for limited units while the for-sale market weakens.
Where Rents Are Falling
On the other end of the spectrum, a set of Sun Belt markets ā predominantly in Florida ā are experiencing meaningful rent declines:
| Rank | Metro | YoY Rent Change | Current ZORI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | -4.0% | $1,879 |
| 2 | North Port-Sarasota, FL | -3.4% | $2,003 |
| 3 | Kahului-Wailuku, HI | -2.7% | $2,465 |
| 4 | Napa, CA | -2.0% | $2,290 |
| 5 | Tampa, FL | -1.7% | $1,855 |
| 6 | Homosassa Springs, FL | -1.6% | $1,577 |
| 7 | Bozeman, MT | -1.3% | $1,722 |
| 8 | Punta Gorda, FL | -0.9% | $1,878 |
The Florida Correction
Florida's prominence in the declining-rent column is no accident. The state experienced some of the most dramatic pandemic-era rent spikes in the country ā Cape Coral rents surged over 50% between 2020 and 2023. Now, a combination of factors is reversing that trend:
- Massive construction: Florida metros lead the nation in building permits per capita. Cape Coral (18.7/1,000), Punta Gorda (20.1/1,000), and North Port-Sarasota (14.5/1,000) are flooding the market with new units.
- Insurance crisis: Soaring property insurance rates ā up 40-100% in many Florida markets ā are pushing some owners to sell or convert to rentals, adding supply.
- Hurricane impacts: Recurring hurricane damage in Southwest Florida has dampened demand in markets like Cape Coral and Punta Gorda.
- Pandemic reversion: Some remote workers who relocated to Florida during COVID are returning to original markets.
Five-Year Rent Changes Tell a Different Story
While 1-year changes capture the current momentum, 5-year ZORI changes reveal the full magnitude of the post-pandemic rental reshaping:
Biggest 5-Year Rent Increases
- Abilene, TX: +68.0%
- Monroe, LA: +55%+
- Traverse City, MI: +50%+
These represent the cumulative impact of years of underbuilding meeting rising demand.
Markets Cooling After Boom
- Cape Coral: 5yr +40%+, but now -4.0% YoY
- Bozeman: 5yr +35%+, but now -1.3% YoY
- Tampa: 5yr +35%+, but now -1.7% YoY
Post-pandemic corrections don't erase the damage ā rents remain far above 2019 levels.
Impact on Rent Burden
In the fastest-rising markets, rent burden is worsening rapidly. When rents climb 10-33% in a single year but wages grow 3-4%, the math is punishing. The typical renter in Abilene now spends approximately 19.4% of income on rent ā still below the 30% threshold, but rapidly approaching it. In Traverse City, the ZORI of $1,974 already implies significant burden for the metro's moderate-income workforce.
Explore rent burden data across all metros on our Rent Burden Dashboard, and read our deep dive: The Rent Burden Crisis.
What to Watch
The bifurcation of the rental market ā with small metros surging and overbuilt Sun Belt markets correcting ā is likely to continue through 2026. Key signals to monitor:
- Apartment completions: A record wave of multifamily construction started in 2022-2023 is now delivering. Markets with the most completions will see the most rent relief.
- Insurance costs: Particularly in Florida and the Gulf Coast, insurance is becoming a defining factor in housing costs.
- Remote work trends: Any shift back toward in-office work could accelerate corrections in Zoom towns while re-pressuring gateway cities.
Methodology
Rent data sourced from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), which measures the typical observed market rent across a given region. Year-over-year changes compare the most recent month's ZORI to the same month one year prior. Five-year changes compare to five years prior. Only metros with ZORI data available for the comparison period are included. All 373 tracked metros were analyzed; results filtered to those with valid ZORI data.
Explore the full rent data on our interactive map (select "Rent Change YoY").