The COVID-19 pandemic didn't just disrupt health and work — it permanently reshuffled the American housing map. Remote work untethered millions from their offices. Stimulus checks and low rates fueled a buying frenzy. And the resulting migration patterns have redrawn which places are "expensive" and which are "affordable" in ways that would have been unthinkable in 2019.
The Biggest Winners (and What It Cost)
States that saw the largest price increases since 2019 share a common story: they received massive inflows of migrants from expensive coastal states, particularly California, New York, and Illinois.
| State | HPI Change Since 2019 | Affordability Score |
|---|---|---|
| Idaho | +80.3% | 62 |
| Montana | +70.6% | 45 |
| Florida | +65.3% | 47 |
| Arizona | +57.7% | 48 |
| South Carolina | +57.2% | 56 |
Idaho's +80.3% is staggering — a home worth $300,000 in early 2020 is now worth $541,000. For longtime Idaho residents earning local wages, this was a disaster. Boise's affordability score sits at 48 — once a budget haven, now a mid-tier expensive market.
The Pandemic's "Losers" (Actually Winners for Buyers)
The slowest-appreciating states since 2019 are places people left:
- Illinois: +25.2% — ongoing population decline, high property taxes
- Louisiana: +28.5% — hurricane damage and economic stagnation
- North Dakota: +30.1% — oil bust, harsh climate, shrinking rural areas
- Iowa: +32.6% — steady but unremarkable
- Mississippi: +33.0% — persistent poverty limits demand
For buyers, these are actually the opportunity states. A 25% gain over six years is modest, and these markets remain genuinely affordable. But they also represent places where economic dynamism is low and young people continue to leave.
The Mountain West Phenomenon
No region was transformed more dramatically than the Mountain West. Montana, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and Oregon all saw massive inflows of remote workers from the coasts. Small cities that had been affordable for decades — Bozeman, Missoula, Bend, Coeur d'Alene — became poster children for the "Zoom town" effect.
Bozeman, Montana saw its HPI increase +383.8% since 2000 and now has a median home price of $691,200 — in a metro of 130,000 people where the median income is $71,000. The price-to-income ratio is nearly 10×, rivaling San Francisco.
Florida: The Everything Story
Florida is both the biggest construction state (173,326 permits in 2024) and one of the fastest-appreciating (+65.3% since 2019). It's absorbing enormous population growth while simultaneously facing rising insurance costs, climate risk, and increasingly stretched infrastructure. The question for Florida is whether the building boom can outrun the demand boom.
What Comes Next
The pandemic reshuffling isn't over — it's settling. Remote work is here to stay for ~30% of the workforce, meaning geographic arbitrage (earn a city salary, live in a cheap area) will continue to bid up prices in previously affordable markets. The states that build aggressively (Texas, Florida, the Carolinas) will absorb growth without as much price pressure. The states that don't (California, Colorado, Montana) will continue to see affordability erode.
Explore the full FHFA price trend for any state on our state profiles.